Goalie Efficiency Model · GEMGoalie Development Report
Washington Capitals
Sports Performance Analysis · G.E.M.Prepared for Washington Capitals Hockey Operations · Confidential — not for redistribution 01 /
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What this report is built on

Logan Thompson
G · Washington Capitals · NHL
12Games in sample 255Shots analyzed 248Decided 26GA .895SV% in sample
NHL sample · 02.05 – 04.02.2026 · 12 games
Charlie Lindgren
G · Washington Capitals · NHL
15Games in sample 397Shots analyzed 392Decided 50GA .872SV% in sample
NHL sample · 11.20.2025 – 04.05.2026 · 15 games
Every number in this report describes what happened in this analyzed sample — not the season, and not the goalie in general.
  • Lindgren’s sample grew 2.5× on 2026-08-25 — fifteen tagged games to Thompson’s twelve. One goal now moves his overall save % by about .003. Where the bigger sample moved a number, his slides say so rather than smoothing it over.
  • No single game carries his rates any more — 04.05 vs NYR (8 GA on 30 shots) held 38% of his goals in the six-game sample; at fifteen games it holds 16%, and excluding it he is .884 overall.
  • Two of his games arrived double-tagged at the source (two video uploads of the same periods). The duplicates — including one double-counted goal — were deleted in the source database on 2026-08-26, along with one save whose only video had died with the stale upload. Every number here is computed after that cleanup.
  • Baseline (“NHL pool”) = the other NHL goalies we track — 2,005 shots, includes backups — not a league average. Thompson’s rows always exclude his own shots from the pool.
  • The pool contains a 180-shot Thompson sample from GEM’s own earlier tagging (~9% of it), so Lindgren’s baselines are not fully independent of his tandem partner. It never mixes into either goalie’s own numbers on these slides.
Logan Thompson · games in the analyzed sample
DateOpponent
Charlie Lindgren · games in the analyzed sample
DateOpponent
Our Sample

Workload and quality faced

Logan Thompson
NHL · 255 shots analyzed · 26 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
222/248
High-danger save %High-danger
.000
52/75
20.7
shots faced per game
12 coded games
30%
of his shots were high-danger
NHL goalies we track: 31%
Charlie Lindgren
NHL · 397 shots analyzed · 50 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
342/392
High-danger save %High-danger
.000
79/118
26.1
shots faced per game
15 coded games
30%
of his shots were high-danger
NHL goalies we track: 31%
  • Lindgren carried the heavier per-game load — 26.1 shots per game to Thompson’s 20.7, across fifteen games to Thompson’s twelve, at an identical 30% high-danger share.
  • On high-danger itself both sat under the pool: Thompson .693 and Lindgren .669 against roughly .75 for the goalies we track — the tandem’s gap to the pool lives almost entirely in the high-danger tier.
  • Fifteen games is a real profile for Lindgren — the six-game caveat this deck first shipped with is retired.
What the movement data shows
Most-used chains share of all shots
Logan Thompson
Post Entry Feet Step Out - Set228.9%
Drift Post Entry Feet187.3%
Charlie Lindgren
Post Entry Feet Step Out - Set379.4%
Tracking Shuffles Step Shuffle266.6%
Save selection share of saves
Logan Thompson
Butterfly Glove2913.4%
Blocking Body Save2612.0%
Charlie Lindgren
Butterfly Glove6619.4%
Butterfly Blocker5516.1%
Beaten share of goals
Logan Thompson
Around623%
Blocker High519%
Charlie Lindgren
Glove High1428%
Glove Mid1122%
Chains are consecutive movement pairs, counted once per shot wherever they fall in the chain. GEM codes up to five movements, the save selection and the trajectory on every shot. The three blocks carry three different denominators, because the fields do: decided shots (248 · 392), saves carrying a technique tag (216 · 341), goals carrying a trajectory (26 · 50).
Logan Thompson · Profile

Traffic and the perimeter didn’t beat him

Overall save % · in these games
.000
222/248 in sample · 12 games · pool .906
30%high-danger share .693high-danger save % 11.5%should’ve-had goals
Identity
  • Sees it, stops it: .913 through screens (46 shots, pool .853) and .900 on deflections — obstructed sightlines are not where he gets beat.
  • Strong off the pass: .885 on one-timers (46/52) against a pool .850, and .955 from the dot lane.
  • Goal quality is not the story: 3 of 26 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier (11.5%, pool 14.3%). 41% of his saves left a rebound, 27 of those attacked.
By situation — where he grades wellNHL poolThompson
Routine shots2 of his 26 goals.979.986 143/145
Dot-lane shots.907.955 64/67
Through screens46 shots.853.913 42/46
Deflections20 shots.818.900 18/20
Long possessions3+ movements before the shot.878.889 96/108
One-timersshot directly off the pass.850.885 46/52

Deflections and screens rest on 20 and 46 shots — comfortable margins on modest populations. Every row on this page excludes his own shots from the pool.

Logan Thompson · Analysis

Focus areas

By situationNHL poolThompson
Forced lateral movementGEM movement bucket · 8 of his 26 goals · −.141 against the pool.741.600 12/20
Slot shots17 of his 26 goals.855.764 55/72
High-danger save %23 of his 26 goals.752.693 52/75
Upper gloveglove high + mid · 7 goals — 12 of 26 finish high including blocker side.882.821 32/39
Penalty kill4v5 · 27 of his 36 PK shots came against set OZ structure.854.800 28/35
Controlled zone entriescoming into the offensive zone · 18 shots.953.889 16/18

No single game carries more than one of the eight forced-lateral goals — without his heaviest game (03.31 PHI) the area is still .632; that game holds 4 of 26 goals on 8% of his shots, so no rate on this page leans on one night.

  • The theme is lateral: 8 of 26 goals on forced lateral movement, and Around leads his beaten chart (6 goals) — when he is beaten, the puck moves him and goes around, not through.
  • 17 of 26 goals come from the slot; outside the interior he is at or above the pool nearly everywhere.
  • In-tight chaos is a small population but a costly one: 4 goals on 5 such chances.
Logan Thompson · Development

Development keys

LT1 Forced lateral movement .600 (8 GA/20) · pool .741 · 8 of his 26 goals (31%) 20 clips On forced laterals — a low-to-slot feed, a net drive, a seam pass that moves him post to post — he is .600 against a pool .741, with eight of his 26 goals on 20 shots. The goals stem from late arrivals and late reads on connected passes: slow to identify the developing play, he shifts into chase mode instead of staying ahead of it. On the rush, his drift timing needs refinement to handle the lateral pass. His own clean lateral saves show the fix — set and square early, well before the release. Development lever: sharpen set-play positional awareness to anticipate earlier. Dev Clips
LT2 Upper glove .821 (7 GA/39) · pool .882 · 12 of his 26 goals finish high incl. blocker 27 clips Beaten glove high or mid on 39 shots at .821 against a pool .882 — add blocker high and 12 of his 26 goals finish high. This connects directly to the forced-lateral pattern: late to position and still in motion at the release, the glove reacts lateral to his body instead of projecting forward to meet the trajectory line early. On clean glove saves the pattern reverses — at his target early, motion eliminated before release, glove projecting forward into the line. Same filter as Lindgren’s CL1: establish early and project forward. Dev Clips
LT3 Penalty kill .800 (7 GA/35) · pool .854 · 14% of his shots, 27% of his goals 30 clips On the kill he is .800 against a pool .854; 27 of the 36 PK shots come against set structure — seam play a coach can put straight on the board. He also leaves the most second chances here: 14 of 28 PK saves left a rebound, four attacked. The same pattern as his lateral and glove-side play: late to position, still in motion at the release, plus broader zone awareness. Seam pass, low-to-slot feed, or sight lines through traffic — delayed reads leave him reacting rather than anticipating. One development chain: anticipate earlier, arrive earlier, and the release finds him set. Dev Clips

Clip counts are what each area’s playlist plays for Thompson: 20 · 27 · 30, 68 clips in the deduped union of the three (77 before dedupe).

Charlie Lindgren · Profile

Forced movement and pace stayed his side of the net

Overall save % · in these games
.000
342/392 in sample · 15 games · pool .907
30%high-danger share .669high-danger save % 22.0%should’ve-had goals
Identity
  • The inverse of his partner’s profile: .780 in forced lateral movement (32/41, pool .738) and .932 off the rush (110/118) — the exposure that leads Thompson’s focus list is Lindgren’s best delta, and speed does not beat him.
  • The kill settled to the pool: .841 on 69 PK shots against a pool .850 — the six-game .906 was small-sample variance, not a trend.
  • Second chances stayed clean: 36% of saves left a rebound, under the pool’s 40%, with 29 attacked.
By situation — where he grades wellNHL poolLindgren
Routine shots5 of his 50 goals.981.976 201/206
Rush chances8 of his 50 goals.917.932 110/118
Dot-lane shots.938 at six games.917.910 91/100
Quick releasecatch-and-shoot.876.891 41/46
Penalty kill4v5 · .906 at six games.850.841 58/69
Forced lateral movementGEM movement bucket · 41 shots — the exposure that leads Thompson’s focus list.738.780 32/41

Fifteen games, 41–207 decided shots per row. Two six-game strengths — the kill (.906) and the dot lane (.938) — settled back to the pool as the sample grew; forced lateral movement, quick release and the rush held above it. The pool for these rows includes an earlier-tagged Thompson sample (~9%); see slide one.

Charlie Lindgren · Analysis

Focus areas

By situationNHL poolLindgren
Upper gloveglove high + mid · 25 of his 50 goals — 50%.885.764 81/106
Through screens56 of the 73 against set OZ play.871.753 55/73
One-timersshot directly off the pass · .879 at six games, .779 at fifteen.866.779 60/77
Deflections32 shots — faded toward the pool as the sample grew.817.813 26/32
Controlled zone entriescoming into the offensive zone · 29 shots · goals in four different games.955.793 23/29
Two or more lateral movementsbefore the shot, excluding settled feet · non-routine — .842 at six games.816.752 85/113
Slot shots27 of his 50 goals.851.767 89/116
High-danger save %39 of his 50 goals.753.669 79/118
Should’ve-had goalsshare of goals against, lower is better · held as the sample grew 2.5×13.9%22.0% 11/50

04.05 vs NYR (8 GA) holds 16% of his goals; without it he is .884 — no row on this page leans on one night. Upper glove is .772 without its heaviest game; the zone-entry goals sit in four different games. One-timers moved most with sample size: .879 at six games, .779 at fifteen.

  • The organizing theme is sightline and the seam: screens and deflections together are 20 GA on 86 shots (.767, pool .865), five more goals come from the blue line through bodies (.896 vs .970), and set-play one-timers run .779 on 77.
  • Upper glove now carries half his goals (25 of 50) — the one exposure he and Thompson share, on an identical filter, and the rate held as the sample tripled.
  • His should’ve-had share, 22.0% against the pool’s 13.9%, held as the sample grew from six games to fifteen — no longer small-sample noise. Flagged for coach review.
Charlie Lindgren · Development

Development keys

CL1 Upper glove .764 (25 GA/106) · pool .885 · 25 of his 50 goals (50%) 74 clips Half his goals finish glove high or mid — .764 against a pool .885, goals in 10 of his 15 games. He is confident and consistent low glove, and that low-protect tendency means the glove is often not established early: it arrives late, through rounded, non-forward routes, with the eyes deprioritized. When his feet are set and his hands present forward, upper saves are direct and clean. Same filter as Thompson’s LT2: establish the glove and present the hands forward before the release — route efficiency, not hand speed. Dev Clips
CL2 Screens and deflections .767 (20 GA/86) · pool .865 · screened alone .753, deflections .813 · 40% of his goals 86 clips Two obstructed-sightline exposures with one mechanism: shots through screens (.753, 18 GA/73 — 56 of the 73 in set OZ play) and deflections (.813, 6 GA/32), together 40% of his goals, plus five more from the blue line through bodies (.896 vs .970). The tandem contrast leads: Lindgren faces more screened shots than Thompson (73 to 46) and is .753 where Thompson is .913 — same structure, opposite results. The difference to watch: depth against the screen, and how each finds the puck. Dev Clips
CL3 Coming into the offensive zone .793 (6 GA/29) · pool .955 · goals in four different games 29 clips On controlled entries that become set play he is .793 where the pool is .955 — the widest delta in his profile, with goals in four different games. His rush number is the mirror (.933): pace on the entry is not the exposure; the pause between the entry and the shot might be. On those six goals: where is he when the puck crosses the line, and is he still tracking the carrier when the puck moves off him? Dev Clips
CL4 One-timers .779 (17 GA/77) · pool .866 · Thompson .885 76 clips One-timers run .779 on 77 shots against a pool .866, with goals in ten different games — a set-play pattern: 48 of the 77 come out of OZP structure, and ten of the 17 goals finish glove high or mid, inside the upper-glove population. Only one of the 17 is a should’ve-had: earned goals off lateral puck movement. The question: is this its own pattern — set-play seams testing his set-and-release timing — or the upper glove arriving by another name? Dev Clips

Clip counts are what each area’s playlist plays for Lindgren: 74 · 86 · 29 · 76, 209 clips in the deduped union of the four (265 before dedupe).

Goalie Efficiency Model

Goalie Development Report

Logan Thompson Washington Capitals · NHL  ·  Charlie Lindgren Washington Capitals · NHL
Prepared for Washington Capitals Hockey Operations · Confidential — not for redistribution
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